Opinions are a valuable tool for marketers. They can be used to influence people’s buying decisions or to sway public opinion on an issue. However, relying too heavily on opinions can be risky and lead to disappointment when those opinions don’t reflect the actual behavior of consumers. Marketers must use other data sources and opinion research to predict people’s behavior accurately. By doing so, marketers can avoid wasting time and money on ineffective campaigns and products.
“Do not ask people; ask the brain.”
Relying too heavily on opinions can be counterproductive. People’s opinions don’t always reflect their actual behavior. For example, someone may say they would never buy a particular product but then go out and purchase it anyway. Or, someone may claim to be interested in a specific type of product but then never actually look at or purchase that type of product.
Because of this disconnect between what people say and what they do, marketers need to use other data sources and opinion research to make accurate predictions about consumer behavior. Marketers need to use various data sources – sales data or surveys of actual conduct – to make accurate predictions about consumer behavior. Marketers avoid wasting time and money on ineffective campaigns and products.
The Hypothetical Bias – When Talk is Cheap
The hypothetical bias is a cognitive bias that refers to people’s tendency to overestimate their likelihood of taking a specific action, especially when that action is risky or difficult. It can lead people to make decisions that are not in their best interest or not aligned with their valid preferences. The hypothetical bias is often used in marketing research. For example, marketers may ask people how likely they would be to purchase a product if it were available at a specific price. However, people may overestimate their likelihood of buying the product, and the actual purchase rate may be lower than predicted.
Experiments to Measure Hypothetical Bias
Scenario Test
The first experiment is called the “Scenario Test.” In the scenario, people are asked to visualize themselves in a particular situation and then state what they would do. For example, people were asked how likely they were to vote in the upcoming election. In the results, people were more likely to say they would vote when asked hypothetically than when asked about their actual voting plans. The hypothetical bias can lead people to overestimate their likelihood of engaging in a particular behavior.
Measures of Real-World Behavior
The second experiment is called the “Measures of Real-World Behavior.” In this experiment, people’s actual behavior is measured, rather than their opinions about what they would do in a hypothetical situation. An investigation was conducted by asking people how likely they were to buy a product advertised as being environmentally friendly. In the results, people were more likely to say they would buy the product when asked hypothetically than when asked about their actual buying plans—suggesting that the hypothetical bias can lead people to overestimate their likelihood of engaging in a particular behavior. Marketers can avoid making decisions based on inaccurate assumptions about people’s preferences and behavior.
Both of these experiments can be used to measure the hypothetical bias. The Scenario Test helps measure how people think they would behave in a particular situation, but it doesn’t necessarily reflect how people behave. The Measures of Real-World Behavior is a more accurate way of measuring actual behavior, but it can be difficult to observe people’s behavior in different situations. Marketers should use both methods to get a complete picture of the hypothetical bias.
Summary
Opinions are valuable but can be distorted by our biases. The hypothetical bias is one such bias that can lead to inaccurate predictions about people’s behavior. Marketers should not rely solely on opinions when making decisions but should use other data sources to make more accurate prediction.